Fear Has Disappeared, S&P 500 Back in Falling Up Mode

Here is an update to the Archetype Projections from Mid June



Them Wacky British

After surprises in the British Euro exit referendum, US stock futures are getting demolished.
S&P 500 futures were down as many as 75 points to as low as 2,030 while Dow futures were off more than 550 points to around 17,400. Both S&P 500 and Dow futures were down more than 3.5%.

nukeWho’s next? Italeave, Czech-out, Finnish, Departugal, or maybe Oustria.


After Rebounding as Expected some Volatility Finally Returns

After 6 Months of doing pretty much nothing some Volatility in the S&P 500 Finally Returns. *yawn*
You will see from the recent Archetype Matches that the path of least resistance for the next few weeks is upward or sideways if historical probability patterns hold true.


Two Close Archetype Matches to the Start of 2016


Projections suggest the S&P 500 may be confined to a channel of a couple percent over the next 10 days.


At last a little excitement after grinding sideways for most of 2015

But will this time be different?


S&P Archetype Matches for the Last 3 Weeks of October

Not surprised by the slow grind higher judging from recent dips, the last projections we posted slightly favored a rise but this time though it appears upside is probably limited to a couple percent.


Rounded Top? Probably not, they never make it that easy

The VIX has been crushed, the price of insurance has plunged, the economy is roaring and fear is just a distant memory it seems. Now is a good time to plug in a fresh three weeks of closing S&P data points for some analysis. As you can see below, most of the projections are up or sideways except for notable matches to 2014 pre-correction and 2007 pre-meltdown.



A Lot of Down, A Little Up, The only certainty is Theta Burn

Strong tail winds ran into stronger head winds while the death cross killed the black Swan which was the eaten by the hamster at the Fed.


Is it safe yet?

A month has passed since we compared the S&P 500 drop to the two similar periods from 15 years ago, here is where the market is right now relative to the long term projections posted in August. So far the trend has been pointing down and considerable resistance has been built to the upside due to not being able to reclaim the long term moving averages. There is plenty of room for false breaks in either direction and it is entirely possible that volatility will dry up and it will drift around in this new channel for a couple weeks (boring).