After 6 Months of doing pretty much nothing some Volatility in the S&P 500 Finally Returns. *yawn*
You will see from the recent Archetype Matches that the path of least resistance for the next few weeks is upward or sideways if historical probability patterns hold true.
The VIX has been crushed, the price of insurance has plunged, the economy is roaring and fear is just a distant memory it seems. Now is a good time to plug in a fresh three weeks of closing S&P data points for some analysis. As you can see below, most of the projections are up or sideways except for notable matches to 2014 pre-correction and 2007 pre-meltdown.
A month has passed since we compared the S&P 500 drop to the two similar periods from 15 years ago, here is where the market is right now relative to the long term projections posted in August. So far the trend has been pointing down and considerable resistance has been built to the upside due to not being able to reclaim the long term moving averages. There is plenty of room for false breaks in either direction and it is entirely possible that volatility will dry up and it will drift around in this new channel for a couple weeks (boring).