Projections suggest the S&P 500 may be confined to a channel of a couple percent over the next 10 days.
But will this time be different?
Not surprised by the slow grind higher judging from recent dips, the last projections we posted slightly favored a rise but this time though it appears upside is probably limited to a couple percent.
The VIX has been crushed, the price of insurance has plunged, the economy is roaring and fear is just a distant memory it seems. Now is a good time to plug in a fresh three weeks of closing S&P data points for some analysis. As you can see below, most of the projections are up or sideways except for notable matches to 2014 pre-correction and 2007 pre-meltdown.
Strong tail winds ran into stronger head winds while the death cross killed the black Swan which was the eaten by the hamster at the Fed.
A month has passed since we compared the S&P 500 drop to the two similar periods from 15 years ago, here is where the market is right now relative to the long term projections posted in August. So far the trend has been pointing down and considerable resistance has been built to the upside due to not being able to reclaim the long term moving averages. There is plenty of room for false breaks in either direction and it is entirely possible that volatility will dry up and it will drift around in this new channel for a couple weeks (boring).
The green line plotted below is the path SPY has taken in the last few days relative to the two archetype projections we have identified previously, interestingly it is following roughly in the same path as it did during those periods 15 years ago.
Here is an update to the original two matches and projections with the green line showing roughly the path SPY has taken the last couple of days. I wouldn’t be surprised if many take the bounce as an opportunity to exit just like what you see happened 15 years ago in the projection plot.
Stepping back and looking at 6 months ahead from those two periods in 2000 and 2001 you can see how similar the movement is overall. Near term will still see volatility in either direction.
Here are two Archetype matches where two 15 day periods back in 2000 and 2001 were flagged as being analogous to recent SPY price movement. Note how the overlaid projections of these two time periods correspond closely in movement over the following weeks.