Is it safe yet?

A month has passed since we compared the S&P 500 drop to the two similar periods from 15 years ago, here is where the market is right now relative to the long term projections posted in August. So far the trend has been pointing down and considerable resistance has been built to the upside due to not being able to reclaim the long term moving averages. There is plenty of room for false breaks in either direction and it is entirely possible that volatility will dry up and it will drift around in this new channel for a couple weeks (boring).



S&P Resumes Dive

The green line plotted below is the path SPY has taken in the last few days relative to the two archetype projections we have identified previously, interestingly it is following roughly in the same path as it did during those periods 15 years ago.