Here is an update to the original two matches and projections with the green line showing roughly the path SPY has taken the last couple of days. I wouldn’t be surprised if many take the bounce as an opportunity to exit just like what you see happened 15 years ago in the projection plot.
Here is a screen shot of some software we have been developing that goes deeper than traditional technicals and uses several algorithms and optimized constraints to find areas of the past where the price movement is behaving “similar”. The daily movement that actually did happen after each of these periods is plotted relative to the other matches resulting in a very useful model. The hypothesis being that history often repeats itself. On the screen shot below you will see a few areas circled where the projection model points are in agreement and may give clues as to future direction.
See that Red Line? That is not the 100 day moving average, it is not the 200 day.. It is not even the 300 day. That is the 400 day moving average on the SPY ETF. The problem with the market grinding sideways for all of 2015 is these key indicators started to catch up so it really did not take much for the price to slip below, which raises a quandary for chart technicians, is this time different? If the past few years are any indication, a face ripping rally over the next couple days would not surprise anyone.