S&P 500 gets the Technical Bounce most Traders were expecting

Here is an update to the original two matches and projections with the green line showing roughly the path SPY has taken the last couple of days. I wouldn’t be surprised if many take the bounce as an opportunity to exit just like what you see happened 15 years ago in the projection plot.
projection20150824b

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S&P 500 gives up earlier gains and slips consistent with the two Archeype Projections from Yesterday

Stepping back and looking at 6 months ahead from those two periods in 2000 and 2001 you can see how similar the movement is overall. Near term will still see volatility in either direction.

projection20150825

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As the dive accelerates our Algorithm digs back 15 years for context

Here are two Archetype matches where two 15 day periods back in 2000 and 2001 were flagged as being analogous to recent SPY price movement. Note how the overlaid projections of these two time periods correspond closely in movement over the following weeks.
projection20150824

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Looks like the S&P Horror Show is slated to continue tomorrow

Here is a screen shot of some software we have been developing that goes deeper than traditional technicals and uses several algorithms and optimized constraints to find areas of the past where the price movement is behaving “similar”. The daily movement that actually did happen after each of these periods is plotted relative to the other matches resulting in a very useful model. The hypothesis being that history often repeats itself. On the screen shot below you will see a few areas circled where the projection model points are in agreement and may give clues as to future direction.
projection20150823

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S&P 500 Closes under the 400 Day SMA for the first time in over 3 Years

bearfall
spy500day20150821

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S&P 500 Plunges… Finally..

cash
aaahhh

spy400day20150821


See that Red Line? That is not the 100 day moving average, it is not the 200 day.. It is not even the 300 day. That is the 400 day moving average on the SPY ETF. The problem with the market grinding sideways for all of 2015 is these key indicators started to catch up so it really did not take much for the price to slip below, which raises a quandary for chart technicians, is this time different? If the past few years are any indication, a face ripping rally over the next couple days would not surprise anyone.

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History Will Repeat Itself.. Eventually

The underlying trends in the S&P 500 are flashing warning signs as more and more stocks in the index are dropping below key moving averages, while the index still hovers near all time highs it is being propped up by fewer and fewer components.
sp500-vs-sp500-stocks-above-200d-sma-params-3y-x-x-5ma

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