Perhaps this time really is different? Never again with the S&P 500 be lower than 2,445. Better buy now!
So I came across this scribble of mine from exactly 2.5 years ago, ah to be young again…
If History is any indication, there could still be 3% upside to this madness.
Historically we see it can grind a while before the bottom falls out, however according to that projection there is only about a 20% chance of a significant near term dip.
According to the Archetype Matches, price movement in the S&P over the last couple weeks closely matches periods in 1993 and 1994, about the same time of year also. Surprisingly when projecting those periods out two months there is almost no change (see circled area)
Here is an update to the Archetype Projections from Mid June
After surprises in the British Euro exit referendum, US stock futures are getting demolished.
S&P 500 futures were down as many as 75 points to as low as 2,030 while Dow futures were off more than 550 points to around 17,400. Both S&P 500 and Dow futures were down more than 3.5%.
Who’s next? Italeave, Czech-out, Finnish, Departugal, or maybe Oustria.
After 6 Months of doing pretty much nothing some Volatility in the S&P 500 Finally Returns. *yawn*
You will see from the recent Archetype Matches that the path of least resistance for the next few weeks is upward or sideways if historical probability patterns hold true.
Projections suggest the S&P 500 may be confined to a channel of a couple percent over the next 10 days.